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Who will win the 2019 Elections in South Africa? IRR releases surprising new poll results

Who will win the 2019 Elections in South Africa this May?

The IRR released a poll showing that the ANC below 50% ahead of the 2019 election.

Read the full IRR Report here.

Below Gareth van Onselen discusses the IRR poll results on the Big Liberty Show.

Below are the key findings from the report.

National Ballot poll results

ANC majority in the balance, EFF continues to grow, DA stable

The ANC currently stands on 49.5% nationally, down 5.2 percentage points from February (54.7%). On a 71.9% turnout scenario, support for the party increases to 51%. On a 69.3% turnout scenario, it increases to 50%.

The DA currently stands on 21.3% nationally, down 0.5 percentage points from February (21.8%). On a 71.9% turnout scenario, support for the party increases to 24%. On a 69.3% turnout scenario, it also increases to 24%.

The EFF currently stands on 14.9% nationally, up 2.7 percentage points from February (12.2%). On a 71.9% turnout scenario, support for the party decreases to 14%. On a 69.3% turnout scenario, it also decreases to 14%.

Nelson Mandela Bridge Johannesburg

Gauteng Provincial Ballot poll results

ANC well below a majority, Significant DA growth on low turnout.

The ANC currently stands on 42.8% on the provincial ballot, up 1.2 percentage points from February (41.6%). On a 70.4% turnout scenario, support for the party decreases to 39%. On a 67.7% turnout scenario, it also decreases to 39%.

The DA currently stands on 31.9% on the provincial ballot, down 0.5 percentage points from February (32.4%). On a 70.4% turnout scenario, support for the party increases to 39%. On a 67.7% turnout scenario, it increases to 40%.

The EFF currently stands on 13.0% on the provincial ballot, down 5.2 percentage points from February (18.2%). On a 70.4% turnout scenario, support for the party decreases to 12%. On a 67.7% turnout scenario, it also decreases to 12%.

Cape Town South Africa. Western Cape Independence

Western Cape Provincial Ballot poll results

DA majority under threat, ANC declines, ACDP/EFF growth.

The DA currently stands on 44.6% on the provincial ballot, down 5.5 percentage points from February (50.1%). On a 71.9% turnout scenario, support for the party increases to 50%. On a 69.1% turnout scenario, it increases to 51%.

The ANC currently stands on 27.8% on the provincial ballot, down 6.1 percentage points from February (33.9%). On a 71.9% turnout scenario, support for the party increases to 29%. On a 69.1% turnout scenario, it increases to 28%.

The ACDP currently stands on 7.0% on the provincial ballot, up 3.5 percentage points from February (3.5%). On a 71.9% turnout scenario, support for the party stays at 7%. On a 69.1% turnout scenario, it also stays at 7%.

The EFF currently stands on 6.8% on the provincial ballot, up 5.8 percentage points from February (1.0%). On a 71.9% turnout scenario, support for the party decreases to 5%. On a 69.1% turnout scenario, it also decreases to 5%.

Notes on the poll provided by the IRR

The IRR stated the following in the poll they released;

“It is important to appreciate this poll came out of the field with 14 days of the election period still to go. The last weeks of an election campaign are a critical period during which, historically, the bigger parties – particularly the ANC and DA – tend to consolidate their vote upwards, and the vote share of smaller parties declines, as their voters are pressured.”

“This is still likely to happen. A second IRR April poll, to be published on May 6, will aim to determine the degree to which this trend plays itself out, over the final weeks. This poll is not a prediction. “

So, who is likely to win the 2019 elections in South Africa?

Read the full report from the IRR to find out more.